According to @KobeissiLetter, the last trade war flare-up began on October 10 when President Trump threatened a 100% tariff on China, and within 16 days the S&P 500 recovered approximately $3 trillion in market capitalization (source: @KobeissiLetter, Jan 17, 2026). According to @KobeissiLetter, they expect a massive market swing this week and urge traders to be ready for significant volatility (source: @KobeissiLetter, Jan 17, 2026). According to @KobeissiLetter, the note focuses on S&P 500 reactions to tariff headlines and does not specify sectors, tickers, or cryptocurrencies (source: @KobeissiLetter, Jan 17, 2026).

According to @AltcoinGordon, Polymarket assigns only an 11% probability that the proposed 100% China tariff will go through, signaling a low market-implied risk for that policy outcome (source: @AltcoinGordon citing Polymarket odds). The author also notes that prior market panic tied to the tariff headline may have been overstated, given the prediction market pricing (source: @AltcoinGordon). For traders, tracking this Polymarket probability as a real-time gauge of policy risk can inform positioning and hedging in high-beta crypto assets such as BTC and ETH during tariff-related headlines (source: @AltcoinGordon citing Polymarket odds).